Expected Value: FSU vs. Virginia

Florida State plays Virginia this week. A statistician estimates FSU has a 70% chance of winning. Here’s one way to picture “70% chance”: imagine 100 equally likely alternate versions of next week’s game. In about 70 of them, FSU wins; in about 30, Virginia wins.

Try it below — each click simulates 100 alternate futures.

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Now suppose you're offered a choice:

• Option A: Get $5, guaranteed.
• Option B: A bet — get $8 if FSU wins, $0 if Virginia wins.

Your full name

Screen name (shown on the in-class results)

Which would you choose?

Option A — $5 for sure Option B — the bet ($8 if FSU wins, $0 if Virginia wins)